Business, Government & Society – Notes on Relevant Journals

Berend (2000) From Plan to Market, From Regime Change to Sustained Growth in Central and Eastern Europe * After the state socalism collapsed in Central and Eastern Europe in the early 1990s, the Washington consensus of 1989 (a broadly accepted set of criteria for a reform program) was adopted as a blueprint for the process of transformation. * Central elements: * Macro-economic stabilization (for countries with significant inflation and indebtedness) * New institutions Legislation * Price and trade liberalisation * Radical privatization * Most of the â€Å"transformatologyâ€Å" literature is based on the assumption that the elimination of deformed non-market economies, a restoration of market, and private ownership, paired with a laissez-faire free market system would automatically solve all major economic/social problems of the transforming countries. The economic crisis within the Central and Eastern Europe area started much earlier – in the mid-late 1970s when growth slo wed significantly and the terms of trade for the state socialist countries began to deteriorate (1973 first oil shock 20% decline, for some even 26-32%) Schumpeter’s theory of â€Å"structural crisis†: advancements in technology lead to decline of the old leading sectors and export branches based on old technology, generating wide-ranging slow-down and decline and causing an economic crisis even in rich, advanced countries.However, although rising new technology led to the emergence of new industries, new leading export sectors and an impressive new boom in the US and other advanced countries, the Central and Eastern Europe countries experienced a â€Å"peripheral structural crisis† – they suffered all the negative consequences of a the â€Å"structural crisis† but due to not having sufficient resources for R&D, know-how and financial sources, they were not able to take advantage of the technological development.After 1989, when the countries of th e region lost the protection from Comecon’s isolation and regional self-sufficiency, they were forced to enter the world market and compete with the advanced countries (already adjusted to new technology) and also on their own opened domestic market. Consequence: the peripheral structural which had prolonged since 1973 continued and worsened during the 1990s. Also contributing to the economic crisis: serious macro-economic policy errors e. excessive devaluation of the currency; too abrupt opening to trade with the West; and the failure in government management of the state sector * Foreign trade deficits increased dramatically and nearly all countries in the region dropped into an indebtedness trap – debt service consumed about 40-75% of the countries’ hard income and quite a few started to lose control over inflation * Economic policy during the transition: Change was too fast countries of transformation should not have attempted to jump directly from a central ly planned to a laissez-fair economy and from an entirely state-owned to a 100% privatized economy * State regulations and government policy were needed self-regulating mechanisms were not yet developed, market imperfections and non-market friendly behaviour were present * Suggestion (Kolodko) : A regulated market, instead of a self-regulation market, a mixed economy with a restructured and efficient state-owned sector for at least a period of time, and a â€Å"fine mixture between market and stae† would have been a more natural transition from plan to market * However, this approach was not adopted and led to a collapse of many old companies (lost a bulk of their value and had to be sold for a fraction of their previous value) mass unemployment, sharp decline in living standards (especially for vulnerable layers of society) * Outcome: Industry recovered only in two countries – Poland and Hungary * Some experienced a new crisis – Bulgaria and Romania * Russia an d Ukraine as well as several other successor states of the Soviet nion had experienced constant decline throughout the entire decade * Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, Slovakia and Croatia – market economies are functioning, economic decline and rapid inflation are over, the annual economic growth is impressive * Performance differences: * Often explained by the lack of determination to pursue radical reforms author agrees * However, besides pursuing systemic change, the countries in transformation also have to adjust to the â€Å"structural risis†, by restructuring the economy according to the requirements of modern technology to reach a sustained and higher than average growth technological and structural transformation of the economy are central elements of the transition * Window of opportunity slowly opened after 1989 when direct foreign investment became the key factor in technological modernization and restructuring in the area but only played an important r ole in the three frontrunners of transformation – Estonia, Latvia and Slovenia * In addition, not all investments contributed to restructuring, some of them served only to enlarge the investors’ markets. However, key investments were made in the most backward infrastructural sphere, especially telecommunication that serves as the basis for any kind of technological progress to date. * Investments had positive effects on Eastern Europe where they generated growth of domestic business which led to economic growth (especially in Poland).Big transnational businesses were also obliged to reinvest some of its profits and to use domestic products and sub-contractors initiated small local business activities. * Russia, the successor states of the Soviet Union, and most of the Balkan countries exhibited minimal progress in restructuring. FDI was minimal in this area and mostly went into the extracting branches of oil, gas and raw materials; transnationals are present but do not develop processing industries and export branches. Consequently, this area was unable to adjust to the late 20th century technological revolution and declined into a continuous peripheral structural crisis. In those Central European countries, where impressive FDI assisted technological-structural adjustment, transformation is paving the way to sustained growth and catching up with the West. These countries became memers of NATO and are candidates for EU membership. Murrell (1993): What is Shock Therapy? What Did it Do in Poland and Russia? Poland: * Shock therapy failed in Poland * The reform program implemented in January 1990 comprised a number of related measures * Fiscal policy was tightened considerably budget surplus in Q1 1990 * Real value of the money supply was halved * Tight limits were placed on credit * Trade liberalisation removed all restrictions * Anti-inflation wage tax was set at strict levels Government made a commitment to privatisation on a massive scale * Soli darity and the Catholic Church were two of the strongest social institutions in Eastern Europe helping to maintain the shock therapy model * Once it was realised that the shock therapy was not going to produce as many benefits as expected, it came under severe attack gradually, many of the elements of the initial program were withdrawn or weakened monetary policy was loosened * Further movement away from the shock program occurred throughout 1991 in the face of massive and open opposition to the government’s policy * Fiscal and monetary policy were considerably loosened budget deficit began to rise to the levels of 1989 * Reversal of trade policy tariff rates increased and selective protection was endorsed * Although policy was modified during the two years following the big bang, the commitment of the large part of society to change was never in doubt. * Change was inexorable (kohklematu), given the collapse of the communist regime that had blocked reforms that had been dema nded for so long. * Nevertheless, Polish economy started to show first signs of success after policy was rescued from the shock therapists. Russia: Stages of the reform chronology in Russia are similar to those in Poland, but without a successful outcome * Less preparatory reform during the communist period in Russia * Core group of reformers were radical and ambitious, and more removed from its own society than were the Polish reformers * Radical reforms had hardly advanced beyond their explicitly destructive first phases before they were rejected by society * By 1991 economic reform in the Soviet Union had hardly progressed beyond the stage of decentralisation within the old system and it was still very equivocal * Price controls and state orders contributed to about 75% of economic activity * Small private sector did not thrive on its own, it was in a symbiotic relationship with the state sector * Law on contract had not been implemented by the end of USSR * Russia’s econo mic and political leaders still did not fully comprehend the difficult conceptual and institutional issues related to establishing macroeconomic control and they had little experience Russia could not match Poland’s years of contact with the West, the experience and knowledge of its policymakers gained in the worldwide academic community, and the years of learning in interactions with the world financial community. * In 1990 and 1991, the Russian government had been gradually gained power (and this was accelerated by the failed coup). * In late October 1991, Russian President Boris Yeltsin announced his intention to launch a radical attack on the country’s economic problems. He had been given freedom in administrative and policy choices for one year and he decided to assign the policymaking duties to a group of theorists, who had a strong preference for rapid change and who had vague idea about how to bring this change about * Murrell argues that shock therapy was the guiding force of policy as Russia began real economic reform in January 1992. * The reform (1992) was certainly more radical than the Polish big-bang, including: * Freeing of most prices * Removal of the old supply system * The complete liberalisation of imports * A thoroughgoing change in the tax system * Rapid closing of the budget deficit * Stringent tightening of monetary policy * A privatisation program with very ambitious goals Preparation for early convertibility of the ruble together with and immediate relaxation of rules on foreign exchange trading * Renegotiation of the existing trading relationships with the other ex-republics * There was greater determination in Russia to undermine the existing institutions of government; the incoming government viewed its mission as an attack on the old Soviet system. * In several areas, the degree of shock, the amount of policy implementation, and even actual policy were unclear * Uncertainty about the nature of policy was present even among those at the apex of government * As early as February 1992, criticisms about the economic policy started to arise * As 1992 proceeded and the economic crisis became more threatening, some old mechanisms of control began to return * Broad powers to control prices and to use central directives on production * To avoid large scale bankruptcy, the government began to make credit available to nterprises in significant amounts * Due to a threat that better enterprises were being brought down with the bad ones, directors of enterprises formed an alliance along with independent labour unions to put pressure on the government, which was forced into compromise with these interest groups * Direct consequence of the policies introduced in January 1992 was that the political forces representing the dominant economic interests of the old Soviet system were much stronger than they had been before those policies were introduced * The short burst of shock therapy in Russia had considerable s uccess if destruction is counted as a goal. But the destruction of the old was hardly matched by the creation of market-oriented institutions of economic control. Blanchard (1994): Transition in Poland * First two years: * Large decreases in GDP * Even larger decreases in industrial production * Output stabilised in mid-1992 * Employment declined initially more slowly than GDP, but has kept declining despite the turn in output * Hardening of budget constraints * Subsidies to state firms were decreased Tax arrears, interenterprise arrears and bank loans were limited and decreasing * Sources of output decline during the first 2 years: * Stabilisation * Price liberalisation * Collapse of trade between Central and Eastern Europe countries * State firms are controlled by workers with uncertain stakes and horizons, and have limited access to finance; state has remained de jure owner of state firms but is not able to exercise its control rights control has reverted to the workers * Led to slow adjustment of employment to decreasing output, appropriation of profits to workers in the form of wages and low restructuring and investment * Slow privatisationFidrmuc (2003): Economic reform, democracy and growth during post-communist transition Key point: There are merits to simultaneous democratisation and liberalisation – democracy reinforces economic liberalisation, which in turn leads to better growth performance. Democracy is clearly not a necessary condition for high growth (as the examples of Chile and China illustrate), but as the experience of the post-communist transition countries shows, democracy results in policies and institutions that facilitate economic reforms and create an environment that is favourable for growth. However, democratisation alone is not the key to growth; it is through its positive impact on economic liberalisation that it improves growth performance. By 1993, barely 3 years into transition, three frontrunners – the Czech Repub lic, Hungary and Slovenia – attained a level of political freedom and civil liberties comparable to the UK, France or Germany. * Most post-communist countries succeeded in sustaining at least a moderate level of democracy, despite very turbulent economic and political developments, military conflicts or coup attempts. * The high speed of democratisation reflected not only the desire of these countries’ citizens to live in democracy, but also the encouragement or outright pressure from Western governments, international organisations and especially the EU which made democracy and explicit precondition for accession negotiations. Democracy has a positive effect on progress in implementing market-oriented reforms. * Economic liberalisation, in turn, has a positive effect on growth * Therefore, democracy indirectly improves growth performance. * Economic performance during transition and initial conditions affected the progress in democratisation – countries that we re more developed at the outset of transition and those that grew faster during transition in turn implemented greater degree of democracy. Growth performance during transition: * All post-communist countries experienced dramatic contraction of economic activity at the outset of the reforms, but the subsequent transition paths diverged considerably. Some countries reached the bottom of transformational recession after 2-4 years and then recovered * Some, most notably Poland grew at impressive rates subsequently * Others (Bulgaria, the Czech Republic and Romania) experienced a second dip later on * In contrast, most Soviet Union countries experienced deep and protracted depression with little subsequent recovery –> for Moldova and Ukraine, transition resulted in a decade of continuous decline * By 2000 only 4 countries have exceeded the 1989 level of output * Berg et al. (1999) found that the initial output fall is attributable primarily to initial conditions and macroeconomic instability, whereas the effect of liberalisation on growth was overwhelmingly positive. When considering separately the effects of liberalisation on state and private sectors, they conclude that liberalisation contributed to the contraction in the state sector, but this was more than compensated by the expansion in the private sector. The further a country lies from Brussels, the more reluctant it was to implement radical economic reforms – therefore, being father away from Western Europe is associated with lower growth, although the relationship is often not significant. * Engagement in military conflicts, not surprisingly, lowers growth. * On the other hand, once the war is over, the affected countries tend to grow more rapidly as they make up for the loss of output. * Government expenditure does not have a significant impact on growth Democracy and growth: * The post-communist countries implemented, at least initially, economic and political reforms simultaneously. In so me cases, political reforms even preceded the economic ones.Hellmann (1998): Winners Take All: The Politics of Partial Reform in Postcommunist Transition Key point: A conventional approach suggests that in the short-term, economic reforms are believed to generate high transitional costs before long-term gains are realised. Therefore, politicians in democratic systems are reluctant to undertake radical reforms whose benefits will not be realised before the next elections. For an economic reform to be successful, governments need to focus on restraining the net winners of the reform as they are the one’s responsible for setting the highest obstacles for the advancement of the reforms. The partial reform model: Explains why some countries have maintained partial reform over time, even though the short-term costs are higher and the overall gains are lower than those associated with more comprehensive reforms * Explains why post-communist countries in which the net winners of the reform process appear to have significant political power over economic policy-making nevertheless have remained mired in a partially reformed economy * Provides a possible explanation for the strong link between democracy and economic reform among the postcommunist transitions that stresses the advantages of including the very groups that suffer from the transitional costs of reform Conclusion: The costs of transition have been substantial in all transition economies – to varying degrees, each country has faced some combination of high inflation, high unemployment, declining real incomes, decreasing state services, and increasing uncertainty. * However, the losers of the reforms have not constituted the main political obstacle to the progress of reform. * In fact, it is these countries in which governments have been most vulnerable to the losers’ threat of an electoral backlash against reform that have adopted and sustained the most comprehensive reform programs. * In contrast, governments insulated from electoral pressures have made, at best, only partial progress in reforming their economies. * Moreover, economic reforms, once adopted, have rarely been reversed, even when the reform governments that initiated them have been ousted.In addition, there have been cases in which electoral backlashes were followed by intensification of reform in some areas * Partial reforms were predicted to generate rent-seeking opportunities arising from price differentials between the liberalised sectors of the economy and those still coordinated by nonmarket mechanisms * Rapid foreign trade liberalisation without complete price liberalisation managers were able to sell their highly subsidised natural resource inputs (oil/gas) to foreign buyers at world market prices * Privatisation coupled with the creation of an effective corporate government structure reduces asset stripping by enterprise insiders. Actors who enjoyed extraordinary gains from the distortions of a partially reformed economy have fought to preserve those gains by maintaining the imbalances of partial reforms over time – the winners from an earlier stage of reform have incentives to block further advances in reform that would correct the very distortions on which their initial gains were based. In effect, they seek to prolong the period of partial reforms to preserve their initial flow of rents, though at a considerable social cost. * Therefore, the challenge posed by the winners is based on a set of assumptions about the costs and benefits of reform that differs from the assumptions of the conventional J-curve pattern upon which most existing models of the political economy of reform are based. J-curve assumes that economic reforms generate concentrated costs in the short term and dispersed benefits over the long term, whereas Hellman has demonstrated that in the postcommunist transitions, economic reforms have tended to produce highly concentrated gains to particula r groups in the short term, while dispersing the transitional costs of reform throughout the economy. * The partial reform model stresses the need to restrain the winners by increasing competition with other groups or by restricting their ability to veto reform measures unilaterally. * In this view, expanding political participation to include the losers in the policy-making process could place limits on the concentrated political power of the winners and prevent them from sustaining a partial reform equilibrium. * One of the fundamental tenets of the politics of economic reform has always been to create a constituency of winners with a stake in sustaining and advancing the reform process. This has been a common strategy both for making the reforms irreversible and for building up the necessary political support for further reforms. * Yet a comparison of the post-communist transitions suggests that the winners can do far more damage to the progress of economic reform than the losers . * Therefore, the success of economic reform depends both on creating winners and constraining them. * Paradoxically, the most effective means of constraining the winners in the post-communist transitions has been to guarantee the political inclusion of the very constituency that most existing political economy models seek to exclude: the short-term losers of reform. Progress in the implementation of market reforms could reduce the private gains to the initial winners over time, while increasing efficiency gains for the economy as a whole from winners’ perspective, J-curve is reversed * Countries that adopt more comprehensive reforms at the start have a narrower gap between the income curves of winners and losers. More on PARTIAL REFORM and other information: Roland (2002): The Political Economy of Transition Normative political economy – focuses on the decision-making problem of reformers Reformers face 2 types of political constraints: * Ex ante political constraint s – feasibility constraints * Ex post political constraints – related to backlash and policy reversal Relaxing political constraints – 4 options: 1.Building reform packages that give compensating transfers to losers from reforms * Easiest way – ‘Buy their acceptance’ * In the real world and transition economies it is hard to do 2. Making reforms partial to reduce opposition * Partial reform, usually in the framework of a gradualist strategy, has some clear disadvantages. It yields lower efficiency gains than a complete reform. * However, partial reform also has several potential advantages over full reform – it is less costly in terms of compensation payments to losers. * If partial reform is less costly to reverse than full reform, political acceptability can be easier than for full reform because it provides an option of early reversal. If a partial reform is implemented, a continuation toward full reform seems unattractive to a majo rity then it is always possible to come back to the status quo (Russia – turned back too early?! ) * Gradualism thus lowers the cost of experimenting with reform and thus makes a move away from the status quo more easily acceptable to a majority. * Partial reform can also build constituencies for further reform through the use of â€Å"divide and rule† tactics (showing that rejection of a current reform plan can lead to the adoption of a plan that would hurt them even more, they may prefer to accept the first one) and the optimal choice of sequencing of reforms (e. g privatisation of those enterprises with â€Å"good† outcome first) 3.Creating institutions that make a credible commitment to compensating transfers * Can offer benefits * However entails economic costs * E. g extending voting franchise- ensuring poorer segments of population vote 4. Waiting for deterioration of the status quo to make reform more attractive * Sometimes only option is to wait * Howev er, decision-making paralysis may occur if political decision making is characterised by different parties trying to push the burden onto the other parties Understanding the difference in transition paths between central European countries like Poland and Russia and the former Soviet Union on the other hand: * Law and property rights: One argument – the extent of state capture and rent seeking was much more important in former Soviet Union countries than in central Europe and this difference goes a long way in explaining differences in output performance (EBRD, 2000; Hellman and Shankerman, 2000) * Geopolitical factors * Quite important, although they have been underestimated since the beginning of the transition – in geopolitical terms, the transition represents the shift of central Europe and the Baltic states toward western Europe several nations are given the opportunity to have more interaction with western Europe or even join the European Union * Entry to the EU implies adopting the political and economic system of the west. The potential reward of belonging to the club of western nations makes it more worthwhile to undergo the cost of transition.Moreover, the geopolitical factor increases the perceived cost of reversing transition policies, since such reversals would raise the risk of being left out of the western club, an outcome than many in central and eastern Europe would view as disastrious. Geopolitical impact of transition for Russia: * Transition represents the loss of the Soviet empire and also of territories (Ukraine or the Baltic States) – wound to Russian nationalist pride * Trauma of the loss of superpower status could be compensated for by economic gains from transition to a certain extent. Unfortunately, such gains have not materialised so far for the majority of Russians. Entry of Russia into the EU is neither expected nor especially desired. * Thus, resistance to transition proved much harder in the former Soviet Un ion than in central and eastern Europe. Sequencing: The sequence of reforms in transition economies are roughly in line with political economy theory, which suggests that reforms expected to be more popular should be adopted first and the less popular reforms tend to be delayed. For example, in both Central and Eastern Europe, democratic reforms preceded economic reforms because support for democracy was much stronger than support for economic reforms. * Apart from political reforms, certain other institutional changes can be decided at an early stage of reforms. For example, establishment of institutions for competition policy should be among the first reforms to be implemented in transition economies.This reduces the danger of existing monopolies going into private hands, which may have enough power to prevent the government from introducing competition policy or any other measures that are opposed to their interests. * Another important early step in the sequence of transition re forms is encouraging the development of a small private sector prior to more comprehensive reforms (in Hungary, small private sector was already producing 10% of industrial output by 1990) * As the Big Bang Price Liberalization in Vietnam showed, the prior existence of a viable private sector buffered the shocks of economic liberalization and macroeconomic stabilization and facilitated a supply response.In Vietnam, after the implementation of a radical price liberalisation, output initially fell, but an impressive growth in agriculture still led to positive growth in GDP. * In transition economies, the best firms tend to be privatized first as the privatization of more profitable firms creates political support and goodwill to for further privatization and other reforms. * Another set of sequencing issues arises with regard to mass privatization. Mass privatization in countries like Russia created a sudden and strong concentration of economic power among insider managers. This is es pecially dangerous because a sudden shift of economic power to insider managers may make it easier for them to threaten or use bribery against politicians and regulators to take advantage of subsidies or favorable legislation.The insider uses the threat of reducing economic activity and destroying jobs which leads to inequality of wealth which in turn might increase political instability. Trade-off between the speed of reforms and the size of budgetary transfers: * The theory of political economy suggests that faster reforms involve higher compensation costs like unemployment benefits and pensions due to a higher level of restructuring. In addition, there are claims that a faster rate of restructuring in transition economies is associated with a worsening fiscal state. * However, the role of the social safety net in helping overcome political constraints is quite clear.In the case of central European countries like Poland and the Czech Republic, the social safety net has helped to m itigate the negative ffects of transition on income inequality, especially for the most vulnerable proportions of the population. Role of political institutions: * When it comes to the role of political institutions and the progress of reforms, there are contradicting views. * Empirical analysis by Hellman and EBRD has found that stronger executive branch of government tends to be associated with less progress in reform, whereas there tends to be a positive correlation between the broadness of coalition and the progress of reforms. * However, empirical findings by Rubini and Sachs, among others, have shown that weak executive branch and broad coalition goverments are obstacles to reforms. Faster progress in reforms due to broader coalition may be explained by the fact that if reforms are accepted by broader coalitions, perhaps there is less chance they can be reversed. * However, broad coalitions tend to paralyze decision making due to the holdup power of some groups and to differin g views within the coalition. * Another possible interpretation is that the population is eager to get reforms implemented, whereas the politicians and those holding office are opposed to it. In that case, closer checks on the executive branch and frequent elections are a way to force the politicians to move, whereas politicians with more discretion would choose to block reforms. According to Roland, the most likely explanation for the positive correlation between progress of reforms and broadness of coalitions and weakness of the executive branch is that it is likely that the countries where it was the easiest to push for democratic reforms, are also the countries where resistance to economic reforms was relatively smaller. Whereas in countries with less initial support for reforms, it is quite likely that both democratic reform and economic reform are less advanced. Therefore, the differences in initial conditions of reform are what determine the intensity of political constraints , and thus the initial choice of political institutions, and hence the initial choice of policies. Popov (2000) – Shock Therapy vs Gradualism:Primary issue regarding transition performance – strength of institutions Secondary – speed of reforms * By now most economists would probably agree that because liberalisation was carried out without strong market institutions it led to the extraordinary output collapse in CIS states * The worse initial conditions for transformation, the greater the probability of the deep transformational recession, and hence the more likely delays in liberalisation * Gradualists objected to the elimination of old regulations and institutions before the new ones are created, warning that the institutional vacuum may have a devastating impact on output Transformational recession Supply-side phenomenon – reallocation of resources (restructuring) due to market imperfections is associated with the temporary loss of output Argument: Di fferences in economic performance in post-communist countries during transition appear to be associated predominantly not with chosen reform paths, but with the magnitude of initial distortions in industrial structure and external trade patterns, and with the initial level of economic development. The higher the distortions (militarisation, over-industrialisation, â€Å"under-openness† of the economy and the share of perverted trade flows), the worse is the performance as measured by the GDP change. And the higher was GDP per capita before transition, the greater were distortions embodied in fixed capital stock, the more difficult it was to overcome these distortions to achieve growth. The impact of speed of liberalisation appears to be limited, if any. Reasons (distortions): * High defence expenditure and the need for conversion * Overcoming the effects of the Cold War Defence expenditure was abnormally high – declines in defence output were not offset by increases in non-defence output * Reallocation of resources from industry to services * External trade distortions – the degree of openness of socialist economies (the share of external trade in GDP) * In most countries, including the majority of the former Soviet republics, trade was relatively underdeveloped * A bit better in Azerbaijan, Hungary and Vietnam * Shift to world market prices in interrepublican trade led to reduced trade – prices used were completely different (resource commodities underpriced, finished goods overpriced) Policy factors: institutions, rule of law and democracy The decline of the institutional capabilities contributed a great deal to Russia’s and CIS poor economic performance * Regardless of the criticism against â€Å"big governments† and too high taxes in former socialist countries, the downsizing in the government that occurred in most CIS states during transition went too far – drastic reduction of government spending (50% and more in real terms in the course of just several years) cannot lead to anything else but institutional collapse * In addition, in most CIS states the reduction occurred in the way that instead of shutting some programs down completely and concentrating limited resources on others, governments kept all programs half-alive, half-financed and barely working Three major patterns of change in the share of government expenditure: 1) Under strong authoritarian regime – China Cuts in government expenditure occurred at the expense of defence, subsidies and budgetary financed investment, while expenditure for â€Å"ordinary government† remained largely unchanged 2) Under strong democratic regimes – Poland * Budgetary expenditure, including â€Å"ordinary government† expenditure declined only in the pre-transition period, but increased during transition itself – social safety nets? 3) Under weak democratic regimes – Russia * Reduction of the general le vel of government expenditure led not only to the decline in the financing of defence, investment and subsidies, but to the downsizing of â€Å"ordinary government† which undermined and in many nstances even led to the collapse of the institutional capabilities of the state * Russian pattern of institutional decay proved to be extremely detrimental for investment, and for general economic performance To sum up, Gorbachev reforms of 1985-91 failed not because they were gradual, but due to the weakening of the state institutional capacity leading to the inability of the government to control the flow of events. Similarly, Yeltsin reforms in Russia, as well as economic reforms in most other FSU states, were so costly not because of the shock therapy, but due to the collapse of the institutions needed to enforce law and order and carry out manageable transition. Therefore, there is enough evidence that differing performance during transition, after factoring in initial conditions and external environment, depends mostly on the strength of institutions and not so much on the progress in liberalisation per se. Democratisation without strong rule of law usually leads to the collapse of output.After allowing for differing initial conditions, it turns out that the fall of output in transition economies was associated mostly with poor business environment, resulting from institutional collapse. Liberalisation alone, when it is not complemented with strong institutions, cannot ensure good performance. Ericson (1991): The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform Characteristics of the Soviet-type economic system: * A hierarchical structure of authority * Rigid, highly centralised planning of production and distribution * A commitment to maximal resource utilisation * Formal rationing * Exhaustive price control * The lack of any liquidity or flexible response capability * The lack of legal alternatives to assigned economic rela tionships * Absolute and arbitrary control by superiors Incentives that are geared to meeting the plans and desires of evaluating superiors Any economic reform must struggle against these characteristics and their natural consequences. One important consequence is that while the administrative superstructure has been subject to rather frequent â€Å"reform†, the physical structure of production and interaction has changed only very slowly. Strengths and weaknesses of the traditional Soviet-style system: Strenghts: * Very good at mobilising scarce resources and concentrating on a few clear, well-defined objectives (that can be expressed in measurable, quantitative and communicable terms and that yield large observable outcomes) * Building of major heavy industrial capacities * Collectivisation of agriculture * Post-war reconstruction of industry Development of an unprecedented military-industrial complex * Maintenance of the world’s last true empire Weaknesses: * Centra l authorities lack the information and physical capability to monitor all important costs * Decisions made in ignorance of opportunity costs lead to a vast range of negative externalities: * Damage to the capability of users to produce (especially with needed quality) * Unusable output forced on others in the system * Destruction of the resource base due to improper exploitation * Collateral damage to agriculture etc * Incentives used lead agents to: * Avoid any change or risks * Shun innovation * Ignore information important to others * Work to rules regardless of the impact on othersThus, while the traditional Soviet economic system has been effective in achieving a few centrally definable and achievable objectives, it is also inherently wasteful and inefficient in the pursuit of those objectives. Implications for reform: 2 monumental obstacles: * Vast resource commitment – however, lack of resources currently available in Soviet-style economies is probably not the most ser ious obstacle, for it might be dealt with through aid from abroad * Primary obstacle: characteristics of the Soviet-style system are interconnected and mutually supporting, altering one or a few is merely disruptive of the stable functioning of the system and its effectiveness.Thus, a meaningful reform must eliminate all characteristics more or less simultaneously. THEREFORE Partial reforms will not suffice The analysis implies that radical reformers are correct to seek the total replacement of the traditional system. Radical marketization and privatisation undercut of destroy each of the nine defining characteristics of the traditional system. Fischer & Gelb (1991): The Process of Socialist Economic Transformation Enterprise reform: * Enterprise reform, which requires the imposition of bottom-line discipline, definition and change of ownership, and reform of management, is the heart of the transformation process. Two phases (opinions differ which should come first) * Restructuring * PrivatisationSlow privatisers argue that firms should be sold off gradually after restructuring. They emphasise the danger of severe economic dislocation if too much change is attempted quickly. Fast privatisers argue that the benefits of a rapid and irreversible shift to private production outweigh the costs of reduced state revenue. They believe that comprehensive and rapid ownership reform is necessary to increase efficiency. * Broad distribution of shares, or vouchers with which shares can be bought, across the population The Role of the State: * Redefining the previously all-encompassing role of the state is one of the greatest challenges for reform.Institutions and professions taken for granted in market economies have to be re-created and reformed to support markets: * Secure legal environment to protect property rights and regulate commercial relations * Accounting and audit systems are needed to organise and monitor information * Investments in human capital to complement the system reforms in areas such as: accounting, credit and market analysis and bank inspection. * Management skills need to be upgraded and modernised (especially in finance and marketing) * In some areas, such as financial markets, reform may require a greater state role than before. * Reforming governments need urgently to: * Introduce broad-based taxes and to develop the capacity for tax administration, rather than continue to depend on profit remittances from state enterprises. * Institute a social safety net, especially for those affected by the new phenomenon of open unemployment * Liberalisation of labour and capital markets is also important.Labour market reform measures to make it easier to hire/fire labour, relaxation of wage regulation, introduction of unemployment insurance, establishment of institutions (inc. employment agencies) to encourage labour mobility. Capital market reform development of financial markets and private sector institutions (inc. banks). However, freeing input markets should not be an early priority. * Enterprise reform is the heart of the transformation process. 2 phases: restructuring and privatisation. Slow privatizers vs fast privatizers. Reforming governments will have to introduce broad-based taxes and develop the capacity for tax administration, rather than continue to depend on profit remittances from state enterprises. The reforming goverments will also have to develop a social safety net. Sequencing of reforms: Reforms need to include macroeconomic stabilisation, price reform, trade reform, small-scale privatisation, new regulations for private investment, the creation of emergency unemployment insurance and the start of work on new tax, legal and regulatory institutions. * For countries with severe internal/external imbalances, priority no. 1 has to be macroeconomic stabilisation (e. g sharp cuts in firm-specific subsidies, tight credit limits, trade liberalisation at a heavily depreciated exchange rate, fixing th e nominal exchange rate (in countries with high inflation)). Stabilisation can be assured only by following consistent macroeconomic policies over periods of years. Shleifer (1997) : Government in Transition Key point: Russian government is less effective in serving the market economy – as well as its people – than the Polish government. But why? Arguments to the effect hat Russia is historically and culturally incapable of good government (such as low trust and anti-market culture) lack support. More convincing argument: Russia has not had as radical a change in its government, in terms of both structure and personnel, as Poland or the Czech Republic. Comparison of Poland and Russia: * Both were industrial economies at the time reforms began * Both economies faced substantial disruption from the collapse of COMECON and other trade following the demise of the Soviet Union * Both economies were in poor condition when the reforms began, suffering from inflation, goods sh ortages and declining production. * Both experienced a near-collapse of the state prior to transition. In Poland – total demise of the communist party and its military regime * In Russia – the Gorbachev government faced a similar crisis, which led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the creation of independent Russia * After communism collapsed, both countries moved to fragmented, rapidly changing party systems and â€Å"semi-presidential† regimes, in which a conflict between president and legislature was present from the start. * Both were led in their transition by charismatic, populist presidents committed first and foremost to the destruction of communism. However, despite these similarities as of 1990, the two countries appeared in 1996 to have very different results of their reforms. I argue that an essential part of transition to capitalism is the transition of government.Despite similar economic reforms, government in Russia continues to retain su bstantial political control over economic life, and moreover uses this control to pursue predatory policies toward business. The political transition in Russia has not gone nearly as far as it has in Poland, and this slowness of political transition disturbs economic growth. Government in transition: * Even when the communist power collapsed, some remnants of a large government often remained, ready to continue political control. The principal goal of the political transition was to replace these remnants with institutions supportive of capitalism. This entailed two steps: * Depoliticisation – government control replaced with control by market orces * Price liberalisation – eliminates price controls that were used by planners to either stimulate or discourage production of particular goods, or to create shortages that allow planners to maintain their power over resource allocation. * Stabilisation – imposes a harder budget constraint on the government, and thus prevents politicians from using subsidies to encourage firms (and regions) to pursue political ends * Privatisation – removes direct control over firms from the government * New functions taken on by government: provision of laws and regulations that support a market economy. * The state had to be weakened overall, but strengthened in a few areas. * However, even with the three radical measures taken, the government retains much regulatory power which it can use to either support market economy or hurt it. Shock therapy does not guarantee depoliticization (as politicians can still exercise control in other ways) or a transformation of government institution which includes: * creation of laws and legal institutions that protect private property, enforce contracts between private parties, but also limit the ability of officials to prey on private property * creation of regulatory institutions that deal with competition, securities markets, banking, trade and so on * Despite sho ck therapy, politicians in Russia, particularly at local level, retain enormous control over economic life, which they use to pursue political ends and to enrich themselver. * This makes them rather different from politicians in Poland * Russia is also behind in creating the institutions of a new market economy. ALSO Transition of government into one that supports markets from the one that preys on them has gone further in Poland than in Russia – regulators of small business exert more power over business in Moscow than in Warsaw and use this power to enrich themselves. In addition, the Russian government has not yet successfully taken on the basic market supporting functions, including police protection. * Russia is much more of a laggard in the transition of its government than it is in shock therapy. Human capital of politicians: Key point: Lack of turnover of human capital in Russian politics may well be a serious reason for the poor performance of its government * Many R ussian politicians are communist leftovers experiencing significant hardships understanding what is expected from them. Few of these leftover politicians have transformed themselves into capitalist politicians. In Poland, 75% of local leaders elected in Poland in 1990 had no record of government service and 45% of newly elected mayors were under the age of 40 – in Poland the people have largely changed and been replaced by a younger crowd, with some experience in both democratic politics and market economy, whereas in Russia, the local leaders are largely the very same people who were there before the reform began. In this respect Solidarity changed Poland – Russia would be a very different place politically if it had a similar revolution from below. Incentives of local politicians to support private business * Campaign support * If politicians need to collect campaign contributions to run their elections, they might favour new business as a source of potential campaig n donations * Local tax base * If politicians need to provide public goods to attract votes, and must collect taxes to pay for these goods, they would support the growth of new business to broaden the tax base * Personal share holdings Local politicians may support private business if they effectively become shareholders in it and profit personally when it does well Poland vs Russia: Elections: * Poland had held elections more consistently than Russia and officials at very local level – where small business would actually have a political say – are all elected. * Because of elections, Polish politicians appear to be much more supportive towards private business than Russian politicians. Tax base * In Poland, the principal source of funds for local governments are local taxes and fees, especially property taxes incentive to the local politicians to broaden the tax base to increase revenue through new business formation and employment * In Russia, over 2/3 of local gover nment evenues comes from their share in taxes collected by central government through negotiation governors have little incentive to broaden their tax bases and instead focus on negotiations with Moscow Personal financial incentives: * In Russia, many of the local officials see a rather short and insecure future for themselves in politics. If the private economy grows, they are likely to lose power because they will not be acceptable to the new business elites or will be replaced by younger politicians during new elections. Absence of political security may prevent the politicians from accessing the future profits of the firms, therefore many local government officials simply destroy local business through excessive corruption and regulation – they take what they can while they can. Initial conditions Poland had been pursuing economic reforms at least since the 1980s (much longer than Russia) Polish private sector was well established by 1990 when reforms began (by 1986 1/3 o f the Polish labour sector was employed in the private sector) * Poland had a much more substantial legal history and tradition to rely on – many of its commercial laws were adopted as soon as reforms began because they were based on Poland’s own pre World War II laws * National tradition made the implementation of at least some institutional reforms much easier. * Russia had been building capitalism for a much shorter time – Gorbachev’s reforms allowed some quasi-private firms in Russia, but few compared to Poland. Russia’s history of market institutions is sparse too – pre-revolutionary laws were an instrument of autocratic control, not protection against it; regulatory agencies have been created from scratch, employees often view their jobs as mandates for personal enrichment rather than efficient regulation. * However, author believes that importance of initial conditions can be overrated – many countries in Eastern Europe, such a s Slovakia and the Czech Republic, are growing rapidly even though they had as little private business before the reforms as Russia did. Some countries of FSU are also growing despite having a limited history of legal traditions and public institutions. With proper political incentives, initial conditions are often overcome. Suggestions: Acceleration of elections at the sub-regional or local level * Fiscal federalism – more generally the tax system – needs to be reformed as well. * Institutional reforms need to continue – legal reforms are most important among those, but creating functional bureaucracies, one at a time, is also crucial. * Russia made the mistake of beginning with economic reforms and delaying the political and institutional reforms (however, author believes that business pressures are likely to play a critical role in the political transition of Russia and of course they did not exist before economic reforms) Estrin (1991) – Privatisation in Central and Eastern Europe Key points: Appropriate mode of privatisation depends on the development of capital market institutions and the availability of foreign or domestic private capital * Transition must be rapid to be effective, so reforming governments have been faced with the tasks of selling assets whose value is far in excess of domestic resources. Privatisation: * Objective: to improve enterprise performance and national economic efficiency and to help public finances (Vickers and Yarrow, 1988) * Definition (Milanovic) – transfer from the public to the private sector of ownership in such a way that private individuals become the identifiable ultimate owners Seven central areas in which property rights and the mechanism of resource allocation must be altered in order to build a functioning market sytem: 1) Ownership and control 2) Means of allocation 3) Aims of the System 4) The Allocation of Labour 5) The Allocation of Capital 6) International Trade 7) Role of StateReformers in Central and Eastern Europe strongly believe that their recent history proves that when the state is owner, it will always interfere in the operation of firms in such a way as to hinder the beneficial impact of competition Hinds (1990) – absence of effective private property rights is at the heart of the failure of actual socialist systems, and must be immediately eradicated by widespread privatisation. Privatisation: * Important way of raising government revenues, but it will not affect the state’s long-term financial position if enterprise efficiency is not changed; may still be sensible from a revenue point of view is short-term conditions call for additional expenditures with limited availability of taxation or other income sources * Important element in building markets Significant role in the formation of labour market institutions and the process of wage bargaining * Privatisation prevents a reversion to the old systems How to Privatise and to W hom? One of the main problems – mass privatisation in countries where domestic savings are small and capital market institutions weak Arguments FOR selling state’s assets: * Considerable revenues * If monetary overhang threatens to destabilise the macroeconomy, privatisation could absorb some of the excess liquidity. * Owners established through a process of financial exchange will have the strongest demand effective corporate governance Arguments AGAINST selling state’s assets: * Unequal distribution of income and wealth Traditional modes of privatisation are very slow and most analysts agree that for transition to be effective the changes must be fast * Valuation problem – nothing upon which to base valuation (no relevant record of profitability), a significant proportion of companies are loss-making, thus it is likely that sales price will be negative * No domestic actors with the resources to buy Most of these problems are resolved by a free distribut ion of the state’s holdings: * No need to value the assets initially * No need to find domestic purchasers * Privatisation could be extremely rapid * Provided an operational scheme can be devised, privatisation can be constructed in a highly egalitarian way, preventing the early concentration of wealth in the hands of the nomenklatura or black marketeers who otherwise would be the people most likely to gain from privatisation Disadvantages of free distribution: * Losing the revenues from sales Possibility of weak governance if capital ownership is dispersed – central issue is whether population at large are the appropriate owners to dramatically improve company performance Potential buyers or recipients: * Public at large – external privatisation or privatisation from above * Transfer of ownership to shareholders * Foreigners – access to hard currency, superior management skills and technical know-how * Insiders – internal privatisation or privatis ation from below * Involves the sale of shares to workers and managers in the firm * Attractive: * Could be administered quickly and relatively easily, yet could still provide some revenue to the government * Participative organisations may be more productive * Negative: Yugoslav experience: employee control may conflict with effective corporate governance * No establishment of credible procedure for wage determination and for reducing inflationary pressures * Clearly not suitable for companies that require a significant degree of restructuring (probably the vast majority) * Unjust – workers and managers in profitable firms stand to gain considerably from the privatisation process, while those employed in loss-making firms would obtain nothing * Potential for bribery and corruption as workers and managers can use insider information to undervalue the assets or to transfer them illicitly into their own hands Roland (1994) – On the Speed and Sequencing of Privatisation a nd Restructuring Big bang approach – fast privatisation through mass privatisation plans with no definite sequencing, leaving the task of restructuring to the owners of the privatised firm Key point:Political constraints necessitate a gradual approach to restructuring and gradualism has implications for the speed and sequencing of privatisation. In particular, we ward on the danger of privatising too fast firms where restructuring should best be delayed for political reasons. Conclusion: A condition for successful gradual restructuring is a screening mechanism to separate good firms from bad ones. It is crucial to separate thee firms and their channels of finance, so that good firms would become independent of government through government and face hard budget constraints while bad firms would remain under government control with strengthened control. Arguments for the big bang view of mass privatisation: * Speed Price liberalisation in a state-owned enterprise economy will n ot give the correct incentives, thus it is necessary to achieve very quickly a critical mass of private ownership in order to get firms to respond to market signals. * If not done: * Danger of inertia – due to firms not taking new profit opportunities * Danger of continued soft budget constraints – loss-making firms expect to be bailed out * Importance of getting the State out of the economy * Committing the State to avoid continuous intervention in enterprise activity * Absence of clarified property rights * Danger of large scale decapitalisation by managers who have de facto control without assigned property rights Experience: * Poland Plan: combining fast privatisation through giveaways together with strong control rights given to mutual funds to avoid dispersed ownership of firms * Political constraints have played a major role in blocking Polish mass privatisation – in 1994, four years after the beginning of â€Å"big bang† in Poland, it is still not implemented * Russia * Speed of privatisation – obvious success (about 1/3 of workers were in privatised firms by end of 1993) * Problems with restructuring * Former managers are still in control (workers did not sell their shares to outsiders to assure outsider control; managers preventing them) Political constraints: There are 2 main sources of political constraints to privatisation: * Ex-ante political constraints – feasibility constraints * Proposals may be blocked – e. in Poland where coalition in power preferred distribution to workers whereas the Polish mass privatisation programme involved distribution to the population at large * In Russia, policy-makers took into account ex-ante political constraints by designing a giveaway plan favouring managers and workers (Boycko, Shleifer and Vishny (1993) justify that this was the only way to get privatisation adopted) * Sometimes coalitions push forms of privatisation that are economically not sensible but poli tically difficult to avoid * Ex-post political constraints – concern the danger of backlash and reversal of given politics * This may be the case when a programme advertised as very egalitarian induces a high concentration of wealth in the hands of a small number of people * However, political constraints related to redistribution of wealth and income may not be the most serious * More serious political constraints are related to serious income risks related to restructuring – general knowledge that there will be a massive shift from heavy industry to services, from big to small enterprises, but in most cases, nobody knows in advance which enterprises will survive and which will die Experience: * Big bang restructuring is not ex ante feasible * Gradual restructuring may be more acceptable ex ante because: * Gradualism allows for â€Å"divide and rule† tactics * Gradual resolution of uncertainty may enhance ex ante feasibility * Aggregate uncertainty related to u ncertainty: restructuring may be positive but it can go wrong, too advantage to moving gradually by starting to restructure only a subset of enterprises or sectors * Gradual eform packages tend to start earlier – Hungary and China * Optimal sequencing: * Better to start with reforms having the highest expected outcome for a majority and to delay the reforms that are expected to hurt the most Gradual restructuring and privatisation policies: * No political constraints – restructuring may be left to the new private owners * Political constraints – very fast and non-differentiated approach to privatisation danger of partial renationalisations (subsidising a great number of firms) and general delays in restructuring (due to soft budget constraints/no incentives) * Gradual privatisation policy allows for: Establishment of a screening mechanism separating good from bad firms * Best firms tend to get privatised first as they are more likely to find a buyer less large r edundancies and better performance * Privatisation may be slow, but it is possible to speed it up: * Managers incentives to restructure before privatisation especially when given shares * In Poland, although mass privatisation has been blocked, successful privatisation has continued at a fast speed especially in smaller and medium enterprises through a â€Å"liquidation programme† – management buyout * Emergence of a sound private financial system If good firms get privatised first, bad firms remain under state control private savings are allocated to good firms with high yieldings sound financial system may emerge * A credible pol

The Best Experience of My Life

One of my favorite family traditions is summer vacation. Every summer without fail we go on vacation, and we stay there for at least a week. For the past five years we have been going to Disney World with our family that lives in Los Angeles. He is my cousin Ricardo, he lives with his wife and his 1-yearold daughter. I like them because they’re nice, cool and funny. It has turned into a tradition and we all love to be together and have a good time. Every year when we go they greet us in such a way they make you feel like home. Once we’re there and our vacation starts we just forget about everything and relax for a week. We have been going on vacation with our cousins for so long, for a very good reason. It is because everyone gets along. My mom and dad, Ricardo and his wife Mari have a very good relationship. Ricardo my cousin, who is 30, is my cousin and my friend and we get along great. My sister Susan, who is 25, and Mari, who is 27, also get along very well. This works out great because we are all old enough to go out and do our own thing without getting the parents too much involved. Since most of the fun things to do are located right near the hotels we stay at any random hotel. We rarely need to ask them for a ride anywhere, so everyone goes their way and it turns into a great vacation for all of us. We have been going to Disney World together for as long as I can remember. We know the place inside and out. Where all the best rides are, which park is the best. It even got so bad that we knew what time the lines for each ride was shortest. Disney World always comes out with some kind of a new ride or show each year . All the characters are the same but they’re always happy and cheering for the little kids. So it doesn’t gets boring, that is what mostly keep us continuing coming back for more year after year. We headed for the food court because we were all very hungry. All I had eaten in the entire day was water a sandwich and a piece of gum . It was getting late and we hurried because we planned to go to the rides last. When we arrived at the restaurant me and my sister ordered a gigantic hamburger, my mom and dad fish, and my cousin and his wife chicken. When we finish we were all very satisfied and we headed for a little fun. We saw some lights in the far end and we followed them. We arrived at a show it was called the electrical parade and it was really cool. So we went down there last summer and it was a big vacation for all of us. I know it was more of an children’s vacation which but it was very fun and we all loved. In my opinion we are a little too old for Disney World but it was my favorite vacation. My favorite part was when we went to the rides and got on a rollercoaster. My sister tried not to vomit but I guess she had a weak stomach and vomited all over my dad. Unfortunately for my dad, he was on the same cart and he vomited too. When it all was over and we were in a hotel we joked about the vomit and laughed really hard. We shouldn’t had eaten right before going into the rollercoaster.

A Case Study Of Forced Migration

A Case Study Of Forced Migration The International Organisation for Migration (IOM) defines Forced migration (or displacement of people, another term that will be used in this paper), a global issue estimating one of every thirty-five persons in the world to be a migrant. At the end of 2008, there were some estimates putting 42 million forcibly displaced people worldwide. Only half of those individuals were receiving assistance and protection from the UNHCR. The number of people displaced within their country as a result of armed conflict is estimated at 26 million, and again half of them were protected or assisted by the UNHCR. Some 12 million stateless persons were identified worldwide, children represent 44 per cent of refugees and asylum seekers and women and girls representing 47 per cent.   [ 1 ]   According to Willis, the number of international migrants increased double with 190.6 million, Europe standing for the largest share of international migrants where people in the other European countriesâ€℠¢ movement within the European Union members States between 1970 and 2005   [ 2 ]   . 1.6 million Chinese immigrants in the United States made them the country’s fourth-largest immigrant group in 2008   [ 3 ]   . It says that 2000 Philippines leaves for overseas each day for the lack of employment according to a Philippine organisation   [ 4 ]   . There are also people forced to move as a result of policies and projects to enhance development, example being infrastructure projects such dams, parks, roads   [ 5 ]   . These above figures show the displacement is a direct result of war, conflict, natural disasters, poverty, and economic, political or social issues, compelling these individuals in response to flee for a better protected life somewhere else. To bear in mind, many of these people are not as successful and find themselves trapped in these circumstances for a long time if not ever. Under article 13 and 14 of Universal Declaration of Human Rights (UDHR ) declare the rights of seeking and enjoying asylum. This is one of the earliest human rights instrument to develop establishing universal standards for the protection of persons. Following the UDHR and among other existing treaties and conventions within the international human rights system   [ 6 ]   , the 1951 Refugee Convention was adopted and together with its 1967 Protocol, the Convention was placed to recognise the entitlement, benefits and rights of refugees and asylum seekers in States. Other treaties and relevant conventions   [ 7 ]   , such the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) provides in article 2 that â€Å"Each State Party to the present Covenant undertakes to ensure to all individuals within its territory and subject to its jurisdiction the rights recognized in the present Covenant without distinction of any kind, such as race, colour, sex, language, religion, political or other opinion, national or social origin, property, birth o r other status†. It is to say that the host countries, which have ratified the Convention, have duty to not only comply with the implementation of the respective provisions but also to take positive measures to ensure the protection of the refugees and asylum seekers. To comprehend what forced migration is, it is significant that one must first identify and understand the concept of migration, then recognise and examine who is a migrant and which group falls under which category of the term. According to the National Geographic, migration (human) is the movement of people from one place to another for the reason of taking up semi or permanent residence usually across a political border. People can either migrate voluntarily or involuntary be forced to migrate because of dissimilar reasons. A well acknowledged type of migration is the rural to urban movement, people on the move from rural area to the metropolis. However migration also takes place within countries, continents an d region. There are many different types of migration including internal and external migration, step and chain migration, return and seasonal migration. But the focus in this paper is dominantly on population transfer or forced migration, namely refugees and migrants. Forced migrants are usually people forced to leave their homes to seek better living standards, such employment and population transfer is another term used to define forced migration where a government drive a massive group of people out of the country based on ethnicity, religion or other political factors and causes   [ 8 ]   .

Mental Models and Perception Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1500 words

Mental Models and Perception - Essay Example As the report declares several organizations have coaching and mentoring schemes to facilitate employee learning and skill development. This involves having role models within the organization who serve as a reference point for employees. This is most common when nurturing leadership skills in young employees who learn certain skills from the current leaders. Individual organizational members undergo a learning process that contributes to the overall organizational learning. The human mind has proven to have cognitive limitations as well as an infinite capacity in terms of learning. Much of organizational learning depends on individual stimulus-response by continuous interactions with other members. This paper stresses that human beliefs are based on individual perceptions and assumptions and those about the world around us. The accuracy with which employees understand their employers and clients depends on how they perceive their subjects. Understanding how organizations should be led or managed contributes to the development process of employee bias. Employee interaction with managers, mentors, client, and fellow workers determine the type of perception formed in their mind. These features form the mental framework that drives assumptions, beliefs, and the ultimate actions. The quality of the relationship between employers and employees determines the quality of learning in the organization. Successful organizational learning and change depends on the ongoing participation and commitment of employees. This determines the level of interaction and how each member of the team perceives the other person. Team work in every organization facilitates learning and depends mostly on in dividual perception (Waldeck, 2006). Human beings rely on their senses to form mental models about the world surrounding them (Lecture 1-3, 2012; Parker, E. S. 2007). These models create the lens through which human beings view the world. This in turn determines individual attitude, behavior, results, and relationships with others. Mental models can occur in the form of attitudes, beliefs, opinions, perceptions, assumptions, and so forth. They can also occur in the form of generalizations such as certain types of people are untrustworthy or are caring than others. Mental maps of the way things are and how they are supposed to be form frames of reference. These references are consulted every time an individual meets a new person or acquires a new experience. Many individuals in an organization fail to reach their optimum potential due to negative mental models harbored in their minds. Ideas and innovations also fail to be translated meaningfully due to their conflict with the mental models existing in an organization (Morgan, 2002; Hoeft, R. M.2008). Individual reactions to people are determined by the mental models formed through perceptions. They determine the type of details recorded by the mind when an individual meets new people. This explains why some employers or employees love certain people in an organization and others despise the same people. The type of details recorded by an individual’s mind when they meet for the first time determines the relationship that will exist afterwards. Workers in an organization can have ingrained internal images about employers or fellow workers that make them fail to adjust even when they are

The Battle of Algiers Movie Review Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

The Battle of Algiers - Movie Review Example What impressed me most about the film is the way it shows the story from both the French and the FLN points of view. It shows unspeakable acts of violence and brutality committed by both sides, not portraying any bias towards any side. For example, in the early parts of the film, an FLN supporter is beheaded in prison. Furthermore, Ali la Pointe later kills the brothel owner who helped to bring him up because he refused to declare loyalty for the FLN. Therefore, the film tells both sides of the story despite the fact that only one side of the previous warring factions, the post-colonial Algerian government, was involved in its production. It demonstrates a high degree of impartiality and accuracy of historical events. Another brilliant aspect of The Battle of Algiers is its excellent examination of guerilla warfare tactics and strategies. For instance, early on in the film, the FLN takes advantage of the tendency by French soldiers at checkpoints not to search pretty women. They use women dressed in western attire to smuggle weapons in and out of the Casbah. Another impressive guerilla tactic portrayed by the film is the strategy used by the FLN to maintain secrecy of its membership and operations. Each recruited cell leader recruits two people. Thus, he only knows the identities of the person who recruited him and the two others he recruited, and no one else in the movement. Consequently, if captured by French forces, an FLN member cannot reveal much since he knows the identities of only three people in the entire movement. The film also sheds light on the political philosophy underlying national liberation, particularly from an Arab perspective. As a result, it enabled me to understand the motivation behind the Arab spring revolutions that recently took place in several Arab countries in North Africa and the Middle East. For instance, late on in the film Pointe asks the FLN leader why they are resorting to general strikes instead of continuing with

Slanket Case from Harvard Business Review by John Deighton Essay

Slanket Case from Harvard Business Review by John Deighton - Essay Example A slanket’s body length makes it convenient to use in the comfort of a sofa or even while studying. Some customers send slankets to their loved ones as gifts during feasts and festivals, such as Christmas and Halloween. It saves money that could otherwise be spent on thermostats during winter. Its use is further promoted by consumers when watching movies and during long car journeys. Distribution Situation Gary Clegg ensured the effective delivery of the product to customers’ doorsteps. Every time an online order was made, the details of the client were noted and responded to online. Gary accompanied these deliveries with a personal note, thanking the customer for purchasing the product. He also built a supply chain that helped source the product from China, in partnership with a North Carolina company. Competitive Situation The main competitor of the Slanket Organization came in October, 2008, by the name Allstar Marketing Group (AMG). Based in Hawthorne, New York, the firm was a Direct-Response Television (DRTV). This was a highly successful marketing firm that was previously credited with the production of Aqua Globe, a self-watering system for house plants, and Big City Sliders, a device that produced miniature hamburgers. As an infomercial marketer, the Allstar Marketing Group produced a cheaper version of the Slanket, dubbed â€Å"snuggie†. ... However, there is uncertainty in this industry as it is not known whether other consumer trends may occur or which other company may enter and invest in the industry. SWOT Analysis of the Slanket Business Strengths To begin with, the Slanket Business had quite a diligent and industrious pair of managers. Gary Clegg researched on patents, found a textiles supplier and oversaw production. Despite the discouragement from lawyers concerning the impossibility of obtaining a patent of their work, due to the difficulty in distinguishing the design from a bathrobe, hospital gown, stylized shawl or poncho, Gary persisted and would not let go of the business. Gary’s elder brother, Jeff Clegg, was also important in the success of the business in its earlier years. He set up the infrastructure for a web-based business. On day one of their business, he worked tirelessly for 14 hours on the screen, answering emails and filling orders. These two brothers further cooperated in effectively man aging the staff and the transaction operations of the Slanket Organization. The Slanket Business had an upper hand in ensuring product awareness. The on-line word of mouth promotion was also strength to the business. At Digg.com and the Daily Candy, an email newsletter and insider guide that appeared in one million subscribers’ inboxes daily, Gary and Jeff could reach over a vast proportion of potential clients each day. Exclusive contracts went as far as having Gary host live sales for the slanket on the QVC Channel, a televised home-shopping network. This was an added strength in getting more customers, ensuring more sales. For instance, by the end of 2007, QVC had sold over 30 000 units (Deighton & Kornfeld, 2010). Another contract was made with an airline

Observational Report Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Observational Report - Case Study Example The question of whether or not students assessed as requiring special education need to be transferred out of the general education classroom is the focal point of this observational report. For determination of whether or not students identified as requiring special education need to be transferred out of the general education classroom setting into a special education one, I observed special education students in both settings. The period of observation lasted two classroom sessions for each of the general and special education classrooms. In the general education, fifth grade classroom there were four special education students in a class of 23 students. In the special education classroom, there were 12 students, supposedly 7th grade level but functioning at 6th grade level. The students, as in all sixteen special education pupils observed, came from different racial backgrounds. The English Language Learners (ELL), numbering seven, were Asian, Hispanic and Arabic. The disabled students, in direct comparison, tended to be Caucasian, as was the majority of the school student body. Testing the hypothesis that special needs students can functi... Throughout each of the classes I observed, one math and the other social science, the teacher regularly paused to make sure that the four mentioned students were able to follow the lesson and the ensuing discussions. While nit making it obvious, she often repeated herself for greater clarity for the benefit of these four students, especially the language learners. The general classroom environment was quite disciplined and calm. Needless to say, and as Carter and Hughes (2006) point out, the nature of the classroom environment directly impinges upon the capacities of EII and disabled students to absorb and assimilate information. The classroom environment observed facilitated assimilation of information because it was both calm and disciplined. While the classroom environment was close to optimal, the special needs students were isolated within it. They did not participate in classroom discussions and hardly spoke a word throughout the two class sessions observed. Indeed, in a very real way, they did not appear to be part of the class. This observation immediately recalls Carter and Hughes' (2006) admonition that if disabled and other special needs students were to remain in a general education classroom, they should be included in it. They should not be singled out for special attention, as would attract the class' interest towards them and should not be made to sit together and separate from the rest of the class. Indeed, they should be integrated in the class and with other students (Carter and Hughes, 2006). Personal observations established the validity of this advice since, the students observed did seem separate from the remainder and did not interact

Malnourishment Research Project Overview Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

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Porter's five forces Case Study Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Porter's five forces - Case Study Example Start up of soft drink industry requires high financial capital, labor, marketing, warehousing and advertising. The situation makes it difficult for a competitor to enter into the industry and expand. Additionally, Coca Cola Company has made huge investments in their advertisements which resulted to brand loyalty with its customers throughout the world. For example, Coca Cola Company’s advertising strategy made it attain a larger market share in 2011 than its rival Pepsi. The market of Coca Cola was at 41.9%, the market share for its rival Pepsi was at 29.9%. The advantage was driven by huge investment Coca Cola Company makes in advertising (Russell). The main substitutes of Coca Cola products are bottled water, tea, coffee and sport drinks. Consumers are currently more concern about their health. They have begun cutting down on the demand of sodas because of the view that they contribute highly to obesity due to its high caloric content. Additionally, tea and coffee are a threat to Coca Cola products because they have caffeine and customers can decide to buy it. This makes the substitute products stronger and a threat to the Coca Cola Company (Russell). Raw materials essential for manufacturing Coca Cola products are basic raw materials such as sugar, flavor, color and packaging materials. The suppliers of the above materials have low bargaining power because materials are easy to obtain and there are many suppliers in the market. However, with recent inflation of the price of goods, cost of materials such as sugar and packaging increased. This affects the profits of Coca Cola Company (Hill and Jones 44). The Coca Cola Company and any other company distribute their soft drinks to convenience stores, restaurants, supermarkets and large grocers for resale directly to customers. They are the buyers of Coca Cola products, and they buy the products in large quantities for

Year-Round Education Research Paper Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 1000 words

Year-Round Education - Research Paper Example It is important to know the difference between this modified calendar and traditional system to compare the benefits and drawbacks of this development. Unlike the traditional system where a multiple month vacation (mostly in summer) is given to students, year round schools offer a cumulative holidays of about 2 months distributed over the year. These year round schools can further offer single track, multi track or extended year format. When this new system was introduced in the mid 80s, a lot of controversies erupted that highlighted concerns over certain issues. In order to analyze and compare these two systems it is mandatory to dissect those issues. Traditional system had served its purpose well for a very long time. Now if it was to change it could have some positive or negative effect on the individuals associated with it, most importantly, the students and the teachers (Haser & Ilham 2005). So while comparing these two systems focus should be on observing any change in their a ttitude. For example, a student from a year round school system can be disturbed looking at the kids of his age enjoying their long summer vacations. Other factors that are important to consider are effect on academic performance, cost and changing a norm of a society. Year round Education and Academic Achievement: Various researches have been conducted around the world to compare the two education calendars. Lindsay-Brown, 2010, investigated and compared the impact of year round school calendar and traditional school calendar on the academic achievements in North Central South Carolina. In this study, 256 elementary students from four different schools, each pair following different calendars, were tested using the Palmetto Achievement Challenge Test (PACT). English language arts and mathematics were the subjects tested in the study. After all the fine adjustments were done to the obtained data, the result showed that there was no significant difference in the academic achievements when students from year round schools versus traditional schools were compared. Another review paper of 39 studies (Cooper et al 2003) also indicated a weak and insignificant effect of modified school calendar on academic achievement. Most of the think tanks that are in the favor of this modified calendar place their arguments on the basis of superior academic achievements. These results, however, is in direct contradiction to their theory. Some groups such as â€Å"Summer Matters† believe that traditional school system is best for the students and society. The argument is based on philosophy of family ties and relationships. They believe that long summer breaks allow families to come together and cherish the moments with their children. This social support catalyzes children efforts and stimulates them to perform better in the field of education. Moreover, they insist that summer vacations provide an excellent opportunity for kids to learn and discover new things. Why Year round Education Calendar? So if year round education does not help students to excel in their academics, then why this system has gained popularity over the years? Parents, faculty and administrator weigh certain other factors as well such as growing school enrollments, working parents and shrinking budget (Sheilds & Stevens, 2000). These problems are partially solved by introducing this education calendar. For example, multi-track year round schooling divides students into groups and rotates them in an organized manner. This multi tracking can increase the capacity of school by 30%. Therefore, the total number of students accommodated in 4 traditional schoo

College is Worth it in the End Essay Example for Free

College is Worth it in the End Essay Right now in our century, a college education is no longer an option, but a necessity. Many college students at universities around the world all have one big question when entering into their next step of education. A college student’s biggest problem when entering school is whether or not their college degree is worth going into debt and how they will afford tuition, books, activity fees, etc. There are different opinions from both sides that contain a valid argument. I believe college is definitely worth possibly going into debt. Here are some statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The BLS announced in 2011 that the unemployment rate for people with college credits but no degree was eight point seven percent. That number plummeted to four point nine percent for people who earned a bachelor’s degree and three point six percent for those with a master’s degree. There are salary benefits as well. In that same year, those who did not finish college earned seven hundred nineteen dollars per week, while college graduates earned approximately one thousand fifty-three dollars per week and those with graduate degrees earned one thousand two hundred and sixty-three dollars per week. A growing number of students suffer soaring college debt, many questions are being raised about the value of higher education and the job offerings in a struggling economy (BLS.) The main reason why people go to college is not because they want to but because they have to. Nowadays it is hard to get a decent paying job without a college degree. Going to college and getting a degree does not necessarily guarantee that a student is going to get a job right after graduation. A student needs to get a job as soon as possible after graduating to pay back all student loans and debts. The main question asked today is, â€Å"Is College really worth going into debt?† Kaycie Sonnier a freshman says, â€Å"It really depends on if you are going to college for a high paying career choice.† It is not that some majors are worthless, but that students have to face the reality of how they are going to pay back the money they have borrowed for their education. Many students enter college without knowing what degree they want to major in. Sonnier believes college is worth the debt you may possibly fall under. She believes there are rewards for going to college and finishing with a degree. Being able to get a high paying job right out of college will help pay off any loans taken out (Sonnier.) Student loans have helped many students be able to experience the college life without having to pay up front for tuition. To a large extent, debt is unavoidable, and some students graduate with some amount of it. Students like Joshua Sonnier who only completed two semesters of college says, â€Å"Hell no college is not worth going into debt.† Sonnier had the opportunity to get on at a job that did not require a college degree. â€Å"I work as a train conductor making more money than most people who do go to college. I got hired on and immediately started taking classes that my company paid for, passed my entire test and became a certified conductor. This did not cost me any money out of my pocket, and I do not have to worry about paying back any type of student loans† (Sonnier.) Some individuals feel like college is just a waste of money and time. There are definitely pros and cons when it comes to college. I think college can either be some of the best years of one’s life or it can be an absolute nightmare. College is all about how you make it. In the end having a diploma will absolutely be worth the debt that may come along throughout your journey through college. Works Cited Home page. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2012. Web. 14 February 2013. Sonnier, Joshua. Personal Interview. 6 February 2013. Sonnier, Kaycie. Personal Interview. 6 February 2013.

Polymer Suspension Based Shear Thickening Fluid Fabric

Polymer Suspension Based Shear Thickening Fluid Fabric Polymer suspension based shear thickening fluid-fabric for protective applications was a new idea. Shear thickening fluid was also known as STF. Generally STF contains liquid medium and solid particles which can be inorganic or organic based. Basically, the viscosity of the Shear Thickening Fluid (STF) will be increased when shear stress increasing. By exploiting this fluid deformation from STF, for the fabric itself, the friction between yarn-yarn and fiber-fiber will be increased drastically when force applied over the fabric composite. Then, the fabric itself will be having higher energy absorption when STF impregnated with the fabric itself compared with un-impregnated fabric composite. The reason for this selection was motivated by previous works in this area, as well as the beneficial characteristics provided by these two materials. US Patents 5599290 and 5545128 have developed Bone fracture prevention garment and method. In these two works, carried out by the same authors, the patent outlines a design used to resolve the issue of the harmful effects of impacts on the bones of elderly individuals. This design was described as being composed of the following: the component includes a dilatant material that was relatively stiff near the time of impact and relatively fluid at other times. In a preferred embodiment, the invention provides a hip pad, possessing a thickness small enough to be compatible with wearer acceptability, that conforms to the shape of the body during everyday activities such as walking, sitting, and sleeping, and was thus comfortable to the wearer (5-14). In order to model the rheological behavior of these fluids, it has been proposed to use a power law analysis with the relationship between the viscosity and shear rate represented by ÃŽÂ · = k à ½n-1 Where k is the fluids consistency and n is the power law exponent specific to the region of high or low viscosity. According to Barnes, the shear-thinning and shear-thickening regions can be accounted for by, using the sum of two power laws, with one value of n less than unity and one greater. (8) The rheology studied will be focused on colloidal suspension rather than hard particle suspension. Hard particle suspension like silica particle, was extensively studied by many researched over the world like Wagner and Lee Barnes (5 8) .They claimed, the hard particle suspended in the polyethylene glycol (carrier fluid) will exhibit shear thickening behavior by varying the volume fraction of the particle over carrier fluid from, above 40% to 55%. 30% by volume fraction will not exhibit shear thickening behavior but in Ragvahan experiments showed (10), by using 10% volume fraction of fumed silica suspended in the Polypropylene glycol (PPG), shear thickening behavior had occurred but likely referred to particle agglomeration( flocculated gel) rather than hydrocluster because fumed silica, naturally have low surface area and larger particle size. In the experiment, the onset transition called critical shear rate seems having two points, the higher and the lower shear strain, due to th e original structure of the carrier fluid itself (polypropylene glycol). The formation of vinyl group and straight chain in PPG gave two formations of clusters (10). Colloidal suspension study was not emphasized and thoroughly studied because of the complexity of the colloidal system itself, which normally involved many factors such as steric and electrostatic stabilize, stability of the suspension and the formation of the hydrocluster via modification of the interaction particle of the colloidal suspension. In chapter 2, theoretical discussion about colloidal suspension which contributed to the new phenomenon of Shear Thickening Fluid (STF) such as structure-relationship of the colloidal suspension in polymer solution and Solid/Liquid transition (SLT) and also liquid/Solid transition (LST) [17]. According to the DVLO theory, stabilization of particle in the suspension with steric and electrostatic (will be have detailed explanation in the chapter 2) charges are important parameters to be investigated. The colloid particles were also known as surface charge particle. It involved the attraction and repulsive force for every single particle in the colloid dispersion or suspension, which contributed to the shear thickening behavior of the STF. In this paper, colloidal suspension rheology will be main topics, by relating it with the structure-relationship and LST theory. In the chapter 2, more detailed onset transition of STF will be extensively discussed. Conventionally, the onset transition involved Order-Disorder transition (ODT) and hydrocluster. The main criteria in Shear Thickening Fluid (STF) were to predict critical shear rate which was the critical point when the particles were suspended in the STF. It started to cluster with each other, exhibiting shear thickening behavior upon increase in shear rate. There were many factors in STF, some of them were, volume fraction dependence (between particle and carrier fluid), particle shape and size dependence (porosity) and particle interaction dependence. The particles can be normal charge (hard particle such as fumed silica, clay and any metal oxide particle) or colloidal particle (with charge). In this paper, fumed silica will be used as a main material for hard particle as well as and colloid dispersion. Fumed silica will be turned into colloidal suspension by surrounding the charging over its surface particle. The main principal of colloidal suspension for this study was based on DVLO theory. Therefore, by studying the electrokinetic for each suspension, relation between this study with measured rheology through the power law index and yield stress value, there are possibilities to relate the structure- relationship in colloidal suspension of STF with onset transition (SLT LST) evaluated. There were two basic requirements for exhibiting shear thickening behavior from colloidal suspension [raghavan, wagner, barnes], firstly, the volume fraction of the solid in the suspension must be very high and secondly, suspension must be nonflocculated or deflocculated STF Fabric composite will be impregnated with STF has great potential in bullet proof application especially for soft armor. The vest will be having higher flexibility and less heavy than conventional soft armor. Wagner and his team claimed, STF will increase the friction between yarn-yarn and fiber-fiber by 500% using pull out yarn test. Also, by using NIJ as reference stabbed and puncture resistance test (NIJ 115.00) for STF Fabric composite, it easily passed level 1 protection. For the bullet test, also NIJ as reference, it showed interesting results. Instead of higher penetration from the bullet (9mm) to the conventional fabric composite, for STF-Fabric composite, bullet was deflected away (rebound) and had less significant mark over the top of the clay in tested frame panel. Basically, fabric composite will be placed over the top of the clay. The mark of the clay will be used as reference for the dissipated energy (energy absorption) from the test. A bigger diameter of the mark and the depth for the mark was deeper indicating the fabric composite has a low dissipated energy system. Smaller diameter of the mark and less depth of the indented clay, showed, a higher dissipated energy system for the fabric composite. 1.2 Problem Statement Wagner found that STF had rheological characteristic of dilatant but studied on the use of hard particle in suspension. Colloidal suspension of fume silica in polymeric aqueous media was performed by other researcher but they studied only ionic strength and critical shear rate effect. In depth study on formation of hydroclusters in colloid need to evaluated to relate structure relationship between shear thickening behavior of polymer suspension with regard to composition (volume fraction), particle porosity, size and shape of particle. Hence, viscosity measurements were evaluated for different polymer systems to determine the effect of these systems on critical shear rate and shear thickening phenomena. Stabbed and puncture resistant fabric composite employing STF with high spike and knife impact performance can be affected by the formulation of STF and adhesion between STF suspension and fabric yarn. Hence, this study is hoped to solve the problems faced by indepth understanding on rheological and performance aspects in the development of STF fabric composite for protective applications. 1.3 Objectives Of Study The specific objectives of the project include: To determine physical colloid properties of colloidal suspension from hard sphere particles and colloidal dispersion via zeta potential studies. To determine the rheological behaviors of the colloidal suspension from the effects of repulsion system present during steady shear experiments. To fabricate STF fabric composite using various layers of Kevlar 49 and cotton fabric and determine stab and puncture resistance of STF fabric composite according to standard NIJ 115.00 tests. References Bazhenov, S. (1997). Dissipation of Energy by Bulletproof Aramid Fabric. Journal of Materials. Science, 32, 4167-4173. Cunniff, P. (1992An Analysis of the System Effects in Woven Fabrics Under Ballistic Impact, Textile Research Journal, 62, 495-509 3. Egres Jr., R. (2005). Stab performance of shear thickening fluid (STF)-fabric compositesfor body armor applications. International SAMPE Symposium and Exhibition, 50, 2369-2380. 4. Lee, Y. (2003). The ballistic impact characteristics of Kevlar woven fabrics impregnated with a colloidal shear thickening fluid. Journal of materials science, 38(13), 2825-2833 Maranzano, B.J. and Wagner, N.J., ( 2001) The effects of interparticle interactions and particle size on reversible shear thickening: hard-sphere colloidal dispersions, Journal of Rheology, 45(5), 1205-1222, 2001 Maranzano, B.J., Wagner, N.J., Fritz, G., Glatter, O., (2000) Surface charge of 3-(trimethoxysilyl)propyl methacrylate (TPM) coated Stà ¶ber silica colloids by zeta-phase analysis light scattering and small angle neutron scattering, Lagmuir 16, 10556-10558. Maranzano, B.J., Wagner, N.J. (2001), the effects of particle size on reversible shear thickening of concentrated colloidal dispersions, J. Chem. Phys. 114 10514-10527. Barnes HA (1989) Shear-thickening (dilatancy) in suspensions of  nonaggregating solid particles dispersed in Newtonian liquids. J Rheology, 33, 329-366 I.F.Efremov, The Dilatancy of Colloidal Structures and Polymer Solutions Translated from Uspekhi Khimii, 51 285-310 (1982), Russia Chemical Reviews, 51 (2), 1982 SRINIVASA R. RAGHAVAN AND SAAD A. KHAN Department of Chemical Engineering, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina 27695-7905 G. Fritz, B. J. Maranzano, N. J. Wagner, N. Willenbacher 2002, High frequency rheology of hard sphere colloidal dispersions measured with a torsional resonator, Journal of Non-Newtonian Fluid Mechanics, 102, 2, pp 149-156 J. Schuster, D. Heider, K. Sharp, M. Glowania, 2008, Thermal conductivities of three-dimensionally woven fabric composites Composites Science and Technology, 68, 9, pp 2085-2091 Young Sil Lee Norman J. Wagner Dynamic properties of shear thickening colloidal suspensions Rheol Acta (2003) 42: 199-208 Hoffman RL (1974) Discontinuous and dilatant viscosity behavior in concentrated suspensions. II. Theory and experimental tests. J Colloid Interface Sci 46:491-506 Hoffman RL (1997) Explanations for the cause of shear thickening in concentrated colloidal suspensions. J Rheology 42:111-123 Egres, R.G., Lee, Y.S., Kirkwood, J.E., Kirkwood, K.M., Wetzel, E.D., and Wagner, N.J. 2003. Novel flexible body armor utilizing shear-thickening fluid (STF) composites. Proceedings of 14th International Conference on Composite Materials. San Diego, CA.July 14 18, 2003. Horst Henning Winter et. Al: Rheology of Polymers near Liquid-Solid Transitions CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 Shear Thickening Fluid (STF): Introduction Review Shear thickening fluid, basically have two different types of fluid behavior shear thinning and shear thickening. There are two types of shear thickening behavior in the fluid behavior. First, Shear thickening is a non-Newtonian flow behavior (dilatant) observed as an increase in viscosity with increasing shear rate or applied stress also known as time independent material (Barnes, 1989; Maranzano and Wagner, 2001; Lee and Wagner, 2003). Non-Newtonian flow behavior (rheopectics) observed as an increase in viscosity with increasing duration of stress (shear rate constant) known as the time dependent materials which have a memory to deform over period of time ( figure 1). Concentrated colloidal suspensions consisting of solid/hard spheres particles dispersed in a carrier liquid have been shown to exhibit rheological shear thickening behavior resulting in large, sometimes discontinuous increases in viscosity above a critical shear rate. This transition from a flowing liquid to a solid-like material is due to the formation of shear induced transient aggregates, or hydroclusters, that dramatically increase the viscosity of the fluid (Barnes, 1989; Maranzano and Wagner, 2001; Lee and Wagner, 2003). For stabilize the STF and avoiding agglomeration behavior, co-solvent is added and it must be done because STF has a very strong molecule interaction between particles and carrier fluid (attraction force) rather than repulsive force when force is applied at specific time (critical shear rate and critical shear stress) [Barnes, 1989; Maranzano and Wagner, 2001; Lee and Wagner, 2003]. The Shear Thickening Fluid (STF) is the combination of the particles suspended in the carrier fluid. Figure 2 showed the STF curve when shear stress applied on the material. The particles used can be made of various materials, such as Silica Dioxide or other oxides, or polymers such as Polystyrene (PS) or Polymethyl methacrylate (PMMA), or other polymers from emulsion polymerization. Generally, particles can be in various shapes like spherical, elliptical, disk-like or clay particles (Barnes, 1989). The particles can be stabilized in solution or dispersed by charge, Brownian motion, grafted polymers and others. Then, pH value of a suspension also contributed to the stability of suspension via colloidal condition such as steric repulsion and electrostatic system. The effects of pH value, concentration of the surfactant, and ionic strength of the surfactant are major factors for the colloidal suspension. This influence parameter is due to the agglomeration particle size (F. Rey, M.A. Ferreira et al. 1995).These are basic parameters in the rheological suspension and colloidal suspension system. Many studies of shear thickening fluid system (Barnes 1989, Hoffman 1998, Wagner 2004), focus on the colloidal particles only such as nanoparticles colloidal silica and monodisperse silica, which is it is well known as a very stable individual particle interaction in the suspension [Brownian suspension]. In this paper, electrostatic stabilize and steric repulsion system is used to control the interparticles interaction in the rheological suspension. Electrostatic stabilize is less studies due to the complexity in the rheological suspension. Concentration and ionic strength of the surfactant are the main parameter of this paper and the final pH value is critical measured in order to exhibit rheological shear thickening. F. Rey, and M.A. Ferreira in their paper Effect of concentration, pH, and ionic strength on the viscosity of solutions of a soil fulvic acid claims, all the parameter in this studies showed the dramatic instant result of the suspension due to the gel point of the suspension or well known as isoelectric point (iep) by adjusting H+ present in the rheological suspension. in addition of steric repulsion system, making a barriers for the individual surface particle is a intention in this paper. The double layers of the barriers (thickness) due to the zeta potential and elec trokinetic theories are independent from the shear stress during rheological experiments. Because of the main intention of this paper are to determine the factors involving onset transition of the STF due to the interparticle interaction dependence which are closely related to the colloidal suspension rheology and the effects of the onset transition (rheological behavior) for the stab and puncture resistance test of fabric composite. Then, the co-solvent that are used, it can be aqueous in nature and non-aqueous which can be chosen to stabilize suspension system The co-solvent should be environmentally stable like ethanol and methanol, so that, they remain integral to the fabric and suspended during service. Another function of co-solvent is to lower the viscosity of the STF, so that impregnation process of fabric composite becomes efficient and easy. By adjusting the viscosity of the STF, areal density of final fabric composite can be alter and also monitored. The particles must get through and suspended in the fiber-fiber and yarn-yarn [lee wagner et al 2003]. The result from the good impregnation process is the friction force between yarn-yarn and fiber-fiber will be increased [lee wagner et al 2003]. But in this paper, by using information from wagner and other researchers, a variation of the drying temperature for the STF and STF- fabric composite will be designed and tested via thermal degradation technique ( pre-degradation) and swelling behavior of the STF-fabric composite after at the different drying temperature. The idea are to avoid pre-degradation region and swelling behavior of the STF in the drying process which is believed will reduced the performance of the fabric composite due to the following factors, degradation of the STF and STF-fabric composite due to the drying temperature and swelling behavior of STF. By combination those factors, believed, the internal friction between fiber-fiber and yarn-yarn will be reduced which is making inefficiency of energy absorbtion or dissipated energy for fabric composite (Wagner 2004). 2.2 Mechanism of Shear Thickening Fluid (STF) The mechanism of STF normally can be described via hydrocluster theory and order-disorder theory. The similiarity of these theories is a idea of a new macrostructure formation occurred, furthermore, it are closely related to rheological experiments such as temperature and time factors. A few researchers like Barnes (1989), Hoffman (1998) and wagner (2004), claimed colloidal factors such as different types of carrier fluid, particles porosity, and volume fraction of particle suspended. But, these two theories still cant explain in detail about the mechanism of STF. Wagner and his team claimed the formation of hydrocluster must be a deflocculated suspension and major parmaters of STF are volume fraction, interparticle interaction, and particle porosity. A new theoretical transition will be proposed for STF behavior. Liquid-Solid transition (LST) or semi-solid transition involving the relaxation state of the fluid during transition which is normally include the changes of loss and stora ge modulus during transition and believed new formation of a new macrostructure are formed during rheological experiment. This a new macrostructure formed due to the formation of the attraction force and repulsion force in the STF, which is believed closely related with double layer theories in zeta potential theory. LST theories is based on the transition of the material due to the changing of the complex modulus which are can be translated into the formation of gel (stiffness) and relaxation state of the material during near transiton and at the onset transition. 2.2.1 Hydrocluster The most related theories to the shear thickening behavior are the hydrocluster theory. Basically, the hydrocluster will be occurred when the balance force from shearing flow in the concentrated suspension and the force rising from particle particle (interparticles) interaction (Bender and Wagner 1995).There are two conditions, first via colloidal factors (steric and electrostatic repulsion) and particle interactions between particle-particle and particle-carrier fluid (Bender and Wagner 1995). Figure 3 showed the formation of hydrocluster, when the applied shear stress on the STF. The formations of hydrocluster are still extensively investigated by researcher in the entire world. The main interest of this unique behavior is the onset transition (critical shear rate) from liquid state to solid or gel state. This phenomenon involving the rapid changes of fluid viscosity in a second whether applied it with shear stress, applied electric field (refer to the ER fluid), and applied magnetic field (refer to the MR fluid). There are specific equipments for detection of this phenomenon such as optical rheometer, small angle neutron scattering (SANS), and two beam light laser scattering. But with all this equipments, still the formation of hydrocluster is unknown phenomena. According to this theory, at the lower stress (below critical stress, maximum volume packing fraction) interparticle interaction either Brownian motion or electrostatic, making the concentrated suspension is easily flow (shear thinning behavior and viscosity of the suspension become lower) due to the particles slippage in the carrier fluid. As the stress is increased, the attraction forces is slightly increases than repulsion force in between particles of the concentrated suspension (particles aggregation become larger and the viscosity of the suspension become higher). When the magnitudes of the shearing force are equilibrium to the interparticle interaction, the particles in the concentrated suspension become cluster also known as hydrocluster. This theory is first suggested by Brady (Bossis and Brady 1989) as a result from stokesian Dynamics simulation and then, supported by optical rheological experiment by wagner (Bender and Wagner 1995). Basically, these phenomenons are closely related with phenomenon of Resonance in physic. In physics, resonance is the tendency of a system to oscillate at greater amplitude at some frequencies than at others. These are known as the systems resonant frequencies (or resonance frequencies). At these frequencies, even small periodic driving forces can produce large amplitude oscillations, because the system stores vibration energy [the fundamental of physic 1999]. 2.2.2 Order-Disorder Theory The order-Disorder mechanism is first suggested by Hoffman (Hoffman 1972) which obeserved the monodispersed supension under shear generate different patterns at critical shear rate ( before and after). According to this theory, when the suspension is sheared, particles is ordered in the specific formation ( hexagonal or pentagonal) of packed layers parallel to the plane of shear. After a crtical stress is reached, the instabilities in the formation of packed layers become greater and particles are out of the formation. Then, these particles collide and jammed to each other and produce in the rise of viscosity. An example of these pattern can be seen in figure 4 Hoffman monitored the monodispersed suspension under shear and showed that figure 4(A) corresponds to the order formation of the packed layers while figure 4(B) is disorder or random formation of the packed layers after critical shear stress is reached. The illustration of the phenomenon for the order- disorder formation of the packed layers that suggested by Hoffman can be seen in figure 5. those formation is captured by the Hoffman by using a simple shear in figure 4 (A) is same formation in the figure 5 (A). Hoffman predicted that, those formation occur due to the strong surface bonding in the monodisperse suspension which normally reffered to the hydrogen and van der waals bond. In figure 5 (B), the disorder formation occurs when sample shear above critical shear stress. Particle are collide and jammed each other and produce in rise of viscosity due to the agglomeration of the particles. 2.2.3 Introduction Liquid-Solid Transition (LST) In this paper, a new concept theoretical onset transition of STF will be proposed. The main ideas of this theoretical concept are the macrostructure of the fluid are changes during onset transition from liquid state to the solid or gel state, and liquid- solid transition state which is normally involving the relaxation state (). The transition also can be state as semi-solid transition at the critical shear rate. This paper, also will be investigated the formation of the transition by using colloidal particles which are stabilize by using two system, steric and electrostatic repulsion system. LST involves many such of factors, such as theory of gelation, branching theories, and percolation theories. All the theory in LST are closely related to the formation of the macrostructure, whether effect on the temperature surrounding or over time. 2.2.3.1 Theory of Gelation The LST of polymers is also technically important since it occurs in nearly all of the common fabrication processes. Examples are injection molding of semi-crystalline polymers (where the surface quality of the finished parts may be affected by gelation shear thickening fluid (STF) and processing of crosslinking polymers. Therefore, the onset transition for STF can be detected by using LST. There are several theories in gelation are normally used in LST. First is branching theories and second is percolation theory. The onset transition are very important to the STF for comparison with the hydrocluster formation theories and order disorder theory and proposed new theoretical idea for the rheological behavior due to the factors affecting the performance of STF such as molecular weight dependence, volume fraction dependence and particle particle interaction dependence. Those all factors which affecting the performance of STF had been discussed in previous sub-chapter. 2.2.4 Description of the Phenomena for Shear Thickening Fluid (STF) Basically, the phenomenon of STF is investigated by using a lot of parameter in the last two decades. Volume fraction, particle porosity and interparticle interaction dependence is a major parameters for STF. In this paper, molecular weight of carrier fluid is added in the STFs parameter, in order to increase the potential parameter for the STFs phenomenon. 2.2.4.1 Volume Fraction Dependence Volume fraction factor is the main parameter in the shear thickening fluid [STF]. In general, a solid or hard particle which is suspended in the carrier fluid such as ethylene glycol, polyethylene glycol or other carrier fluid which are aqueous in nature or non-aqueous in nature can exhibit shear thickening behavior at the minimal range of volume fraction in between 30% to 49%. Above 50% of volume fraction, the rheological shear thickening behavior can be measured at lower shear rate but it depending on the complex viscosity of the suspension which is it is related to another parameters like particle size and porosity. Meaning, surface area and aspect ratio of the particle are greater influenced on the final viscosity of the STF. One parameter that has a huge effect on the critical shear rate is the volume fraction. At low volume fractions (below 0.5), shear thickening is either less dramatic or not significant [Characterization of Shear-Thickening Fluid-Filled Foam system for Use in Energy Absorption Devices, Jose 2004]. Wagner and his team also claims, colloidal silica ( 14nm) which is suspended in the polyethylene glycol, less than or 30% volume fraction of STF will producing less or no significant of thickening behavior either at low shear rate or higher. Raghavan and khan which studying the rheological behavior of fumed silica suspended in low molecular weight polypropylene glycol claim, non-flocculated suspension exhibit shear thickening at 10% [w/w] under steady flow and strain-thickening under oscillatory shear. Strain-thickening refer to the abrupt increase in the complex modulus [complex viscosity]. Fumed silica generally known has higher agglomeration size up to 140 micron. Therefore, volume fraction has less significant affected on the shear thickening behavior. The agglomeration size is the main factor in the Raghavan and Khan studies (figure 2.2.4). The results of Barnes demonstrate that at volume fractions in the range of 50 %, the shear thickening behavior is expected and predictable. In addition, theoretical analysis of the maximum volume fraction of monodispersed suspensions predicts this value is Ømax=0.605, where this value corresponds to, the volume fraction for a cubically stacked hexagonal packing (Boersma et al. 1989). 2.2.4.2 Molecular Weight of the Carrier Fluid Dependence Molecular weight of the carrier fluid is a new parameter in the STF. Wagner and his team reported that the viscosity of the carrier fluid is important to predict the onset transition from shear thinning to the shear thickening behavior in the STF. A difficulty occurs from getting exacts experimental measurement of the effect of carrier fluids due to the reality that changing the carrier fluid affects the interparticles interaction. In this paper, by monitoring the zeta potential of the carrier fluid, those two effects (molecular weight dependence and Particle-Particle Interaction Dependence) can be separated. The onset transition of STF will be a main indicator for this parameter neither the suspension are flocculated or deflocculated. The idea of used difference molecular weight is cames from colloidal suspension which prepared by raghvan, in his experiment polypropylene glycol (PPG) as a main carrier fluid. He are experimental the effect of the rheological behavior for fumed silica suspended in PPG at lower concentration (mass fraction), and showed the STF behavior at low yield stress (figure 6). The experiment by raghvan is difference from wagner and barnes, which used colloidal particle from Nissan Chemicals (MP4540) and suspended in PEG 200 at high concentration for exhibit shear thicknening behavior (figure 6). Therefore, when turnable fumed silica particle into colloidal fumed silica via steric and electrostatic repulsion system, suspended it in the different molecular weight of carrier fluid at various particle loadings, believed, the suspension will exhibited shear thickening behavior at low yield stress. 2.2.4.3 Particle-Particle Interaction Dependence Interparticles interactions are very important in determining the shear thickening behavior of a suspension. Flocculated suspension will not exhibit shear thickening (Barnes 1989), but instead they will show shear thinning, as shown in figure 7. Basically, the flow behavior of a suspension is extremely affected by interparticle interaction. These phenomenons also refer to the final condition which refers to the pH value of a suspension. Therefore in table 1, the Floc sizes are monitored due to the effect of pH value, electrolytes, and polymer on a kaolin suspension. Because of flocculation is expected to begin at lower pH values, namely edge to face that kaolin is positively charged and de-flocculation at higher pH values it carries a net negative charge on the surface. (Nongkhran Chaiwong 2008). The flocculation of kaolin depended on pH, electrolytes and polymers flocculants. Floc size and floc strength increased with increasing of cation valency in the electrolytes and increasing of molecular weight in the polymers (Nongkhran Chaiwong 2008). The information that gathered from table 1 is important for the colloidal suspension